COMMENTARY · 1st May 2011
There are numerous polls and pollsters using various methods to assess the direction and result of the upcoming election. Simon Fraser University (SFU) has a great site which compiles all the various data collected. CTV repeats the data collected by Nanos, which has consistently shown higher numbers for the Conservative Party than almost all other polls taken. Angus Reid shows higher numbers for the NDP. There is, of course, no way to tell for sure until after the election is over and the votes are counted. There is however this last opportunity to make a prediction.
The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party have been running Canada since Confederation, the founding of Canada. The NDP have never won an election. There has never been a NDP Prime Minister. After the final tally comes in tomorrow night, we predict this will change. Jack Layton will become the next Prime Minister leading a minority government.
The only way in which Conservative leader Harper will be able to form and hold power is by accepting the support of the Bloc or the Liberals. After this election and the attacks against the “Evil” separatist Quebec Bloc Party, it is extremely unlikely Harper could accept that support even with his desire to hold onto the title. Only Ignatieff could offer Harper the hope of holding power and this is the wild card of our prediction. The backroom operatives of these two political parties are the best of friends. The running of Canada has depended on one of these two Parties holding the reigns of power. The thought of having the NDP hold onto the reigns may be too much and Iggy may end up being told to cave and support Harper “For the good of Canada”. Equally, Harper will be told to accept this support.
In a perfect and honest world, Iggy would stand his ground as he helped bring down Harper with a contempt of Parliament motion. That was history. Tomorrow is another day.
Iggy could only agree to form a minority coalition (or minority government with the support of another party) if he was the leader, the Prime Minister. The potential of the NDP holding that Prime Ministerial seat will not happen under the watch of the Liberal backroom, the administration of the Liberal Party of Canada.
So therefore, Jack Layton could form Government, as he will be offered the first chance as Harper has consistently stated he cannot work in a minority and would not work in a coalition. But yes, he might have a change of mind and do as he is instructed, accept Iggy’s support and hang onto the reigns of power for the Liberal and Conservative power brokers of Canada. Yup, there is the right prediction. “Conservatives maintain minority government with Liberal support”.
The result of this election will be the Canadian Political system falling into a replica of the American system. The Liberal Party will essentially merge with the Conservative to form the Canadian Republican Party (no they won’t call it that). The NDP will become a coalition of like minded thinkers to form the Democrats of Canada (they are already called that).
And just like in America, no one will be talking about why we are bombing innocent men women and children in Libya. Bombs made in Canada, dropped and fired by Canadian pilots, directed to do so by a Canadian General under the guidance of Americans through NATO. Japan? Radiation? Nuke Meltdowns? Polluted BC shorelines? Nope, never happened.
Don’t we all just love living in a free Country where we get to vote and promote peace around the globe?
Comment by Karen Dedosenco on 2nd May 2011
Information on voting - who can vote, how to vote, ID required etc..
You don't need a voting card and you can register at the polls so get down to the polls and Vote!
Read my mind
Comment by Don Bruce on 1st May 2011
Thanks Merv for the articulation. I would like to believe otherwise but there are so many indications of the accuracy of your statements.