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REPORTING · 24th August 2011
Merv Ritchie
The BC NDP fundraisers have released a short analysis, their prediction on a Fall election

“The rumours are flying that Christy Clark's Liberal government is readying itself for a fall election […] This afternoon's announcement that Iain Black will resign as an MLA and take a job with the Vancouver Board of Trade is further hard evidence of a fall election.

“Clark needs this resignation to open up a seat for herself. She doesn't need a by-election that we will likely win. She needs a seat she can win for herself in a fall election. This vacancy will give her a chance to return to the seat she once represented as Gordon Campbell's Deputy Premier. Those that know Iain Black know he didn't end up on the Vancouver Board of Trade without some help from the Premier's office.”

The NDP are claiming Christy Clark is afraid to run again in Gordon Campbell’s former riding, Point Grey. Clark refused to engage in any debate during her narrow victory and according to this NDP note she didn’t want to risk it again.

“When we nearly beat Clark in Vancouver-Point Grey in the May by-election, Clark immediately acknowledged she would not run again in Vancouver-Point Grey.”

The NDP also believe she will run in a riding she won prior to leaving politics during the BC Rail Scandal her family was directly implicated in.

“We know where Christy Clark will now run: Port Moody-Westwood. This is where she was elected until Iain Black took over in 2005. And, we know she will run in a fall election, before the deadline to call a by-election arrives. […] Clark will call a general election before she must call a by-election.”

This Friday, August 26, Elections BC will announce the results of the ‘mail in’ ballot count on the HST referendum. If the Liberals, who were in favour of the HST, win it will be a boost to their credibility. A Fall election would make sense to any political strategist; capitalize on this victory!

If on the other hand if they lose the count, the same great strategy would be to call an immediate election on the issue.

If they lose the Fall election the NDP would be left to deal with the HST mess and debt. If they win they don’t have to get rid of the HST because they made it an election issue.
The HST outcome will determine election date
Comment by Karen on 25th August 2011
We could find out the results from the HST referendum by tomorrow. If British Columbians voted to scrap the HST I would not be surprised to hear Christy calling an election shortly after that.